As fears grow that artificial intelligence could replace millions of jobs, a new Goldman Sachs report suggests India’s workforce may be more resilient than many expect. The investment bank estimates that only 9–17% of India’s current work tasks are exposed to automation by generative AI, indicating that the technology is more likely to reshape work than trigger widespread job losses.
The report, Gen-AI in India: Jobs Crosswinds, Productivity Tailwinds, said that the impact of AI should be measured at the task level rather than the occupation level. “Occupations comprise multiple tasks, and only some of these tasks are exposed to Gen-AI,” Goldman Sachs said, noting that most jobs involve a combination of routine and non-routine activities.
Rather than replacing workers outright, AI is expected to work alongside them. Goldman Sachs estimates that 42-48% of India’s work tasks could be complemented by generative AI, enabling employees to become more productive by automating repetitive activities while allowing them to focus on higher-value work.
The relatively low automation exposure reflects the structure of India’s labour market. A significant share of employment remains concentrated in sectors such as agriculture, construction and other physically intensive occupations, where generative AI has limited applicability. In contrast, office-based roles involving document creation, coding, research and customer support are likely to see greater AI adoption because many of their tasks can be digitised.
The report also pointed out that AI exposure varies significantly across industries. Knowledge-intensive sectors, including financial services, information technology, professional services and media, are expected to experience faster adoption as organisations integrate AI into everyday workflows. Meanwhile, sectors that depend on manual labour or physical presence are likely to see a slower pace of automation.
Importantly, Goldman Sachs believes AI’s long-term impact on India will be driven more by productivity gains than by job displacement. In its baseline scenario, the bank estimates that generative AI could raise India’s annual labour productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage points over the next 10 years, provided businesses invest in digital infrastructure, compute capacity and workforce reskilling.
The findings challenge the popular narrative that AI will eliminate large numbers of jobs. Instead, the report suggests India’s workforce is more likely to experience a gradual transformation in the way work is performed, with AI automating specific tasks while creating opportunities for workers to take on more analytical, creative and decision-making responsibilities.
